Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts

Saturday, June 11, 2016

The Prisoner of (Mar al) Zenda, an exercise in fiction

On a balmy Florida morning, the mansion staff were tidying up the veranda and cleaning after the guests had finished their breakfast.  The dinner and recital of the previous evening had gone rather well considering the palpable tension which had pervaded the relations between the host and some of his most prominent guests.

But the atmosphere had relaxed considerably come morning, and the Majority Leader, who had maintained his habitual reserve since he had arrived, was almost bubbly by the time he had finished his croissants.  The Speaker had returned from an early two hour run and was engaged in a lively discussion with a Silicon Valley investor.

As limousines started to pull up and attendants were loading the luggage, the Host was amiably chatting with departing guests before sending them on their way.  In all the buzz, one could easily be forgiven for failing to notice that the famous hair of their host had turned a shade redder, or that a small blue van was silently rolling towards the service exit.

The bombshell exploded a week later when the Host told Wolf Blitzer on CNN that he had decided to pick former General and CIA Director David Petraeus as his running mate to set up the first co-presidency in US history.

Wolf’s eyes literally bulged out of their sockets, and for a few seconds, he was at a loss for words.  The Host gently let him gather his wits and proceeded to explain why this was a win-win strategy for the country, the Republicans and him:

-“Wolf, to make America great again, we need to revitalize the economy, rebuild our military and recast our foreign policy which have been TERRIBLE in the last eight years.  I am a very successful businessman, my friend Carl Icahn will pitch me his best ideas, and I will choose a FANTASTIC Treasury Secretary!  But look, as smart as I am, I have no experience in foreign affairs or in defense, and David is the best out there, and so I am so grateful that he accepted to serve our great country as Vice President with primary authority in these two areas as well as domestic security.”

-“Donald,---woah,…ah…this is so unexpected,.euh…

-“Wolf, you are a VERY sharp journalist, one of the very best in the business, as a matter of fact I think you may be the best, and surely you can see that this ticket is bringing the temperament and competence which I promised all along and which this great country deserves.  And we will win in November!”

Within seconds, somewhere in Kentucky, the Majority Leader clasped his hands, and, in a manner reminiscent of Dinah Lord’s at the end of The Philadelphia Story, simply uttered: “I did it!”  Somewhere in Chappaqua, NY, a blond woman sunk into her sofa, sobbing: “Not again!”  Five thousand miles away, in a small Amazonian forest clearing, a thin plume of smoke was twisting in the morning mist as a few women were grilling freshly caught fish from the Apaporis river.  The rest of the small Xurungawah tribe was sitting in rapt silence as a big fair skin man with a strange yellow-white mane was haranguing them:

-“Folks, this is one incredible place and you are an amazing people!  We will build here the most amazing ecological resort in the world!  I see you don’t quite grasp what I am telling you, but we will get it done folks, and by the way,..”

Unlike in the movie, we don’t know if Donald Trump has a perfect double.  But an opinion is starting to take hold: at his age, he is unlikely to change, and for a growing number of Americans (including me) he is unelectable to the presidency.

Republican Party leaders are realizing that, but they can’t ignore the votes of millions and nominate another candidate.  They can’t go to war with him although they can’t embrace his corrosive statements.  They openly worry that he doesn’t know enough about domestic or foreign policy to govern effectively.  Yet they are unwilling to leave the White House in the Democrats' hands without a fight.

Still, they hold two aces: one is money.  Effectively, they will control the bulk of the donor contributions and therefore how the campaign will be waged.  They also know that as a man with a large ego, Donald Trump will not want to face a humiliating defeat.

They could try and convince him to resign.  But while his poll ratings have weakened, they haven’t entered panic territory.  Until then, neither he nor his supporters will let go.

Or the party leadership could convince him to share a co-presidency with a respected professional heavyweight; somebody strong enough to make that project credible.  In 1976, Gerald Ford briefly offered a similar deal to Ronald Reagan.  It didn’t work because the two men were not complementary and believed that they could win on their own[1].

This is not 1976.  A co-presidency of the kind suggested above would have several key benefits for the Republicans: 1) it would wrong-foot a Democratic strategy focused so far on discrediting a personality, Trump, 2) it would prevent many Trump voters from bolting or abstaining, 3) it would force the Democrats to come up with a government program agreeable to both Clinton and Sanders factions, and 4) it would also force them  to do the same, giving them credibility.  Win or lose, the benefits for the country are obvious.

In truth, the options for the Republicans are very limited and risky, and they only have themselves to blame.  Our “Prisoner of Zenda option” is a long shot.  But hoping that Hillary Clinton is forced to retire would only bring in Joe Biden, and he would trounce Donald Trump (my opinion).  Allocating most of the money and efforts to the Congressional races at the cost of the presidential one is risky: it could divide the Party further and encourage Republican voters to stay home.

If only Ruritania were real!




[1]  Ronald Reagan believed he could win in 1980.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

On the head of a pin

The Republican primaries are effectively over.  Donald Trump has won.  The Democratic ones continue, with Bernie Sanders hammering at the only Establishment figure left, Hillary Clinton.

2008 was the year Americans felt they had come together behind an historic candidate, Barak Obama.  Eight years later, they are angry, frustrated and more divided than ever since the Vietnam War.  So much so that they are betting on two outsiders who promise to bring the “corrupt” system down. 

Now what?  Reality is starting to dawn on Republican Party grandees that Donald Trump is not their candidate, rather that they are his supporting cast.  Who is the boss?  The question is being asked now and will be answered soon.

Republican mediators hope that Donald Trump will change his tone to unite the Party.  This is unlikely for several reasons.  Dumping a winning strategy has risks for Trump.  Besides, one of the most surprising sights of the primaries was to see prominent politicians taking little offense at being called corrupt, liars, weaklings or told to shut up on live tv.   

My view is that Donald Trump calculates that the Republican Party leaders lack courage and vision and that they will ultimately back him up in order to save their sinecures: better being tame courtiers than proud exiles.

A Trump president would likely go over the heads of Congress and the Senate to appeal directly to voters, make extensive use of executive decrees, and go for big targets: big infrastructure programs, NATO shake-up, big budget and spending battles.  He obviously believes that he would win most of these; he would enjoy the negotiating game;  but the US is not the NY real estate market, or even France, Germany or Russia:  Gamesmanship at the US level has far greater potential destabilizing effects.  Unpredictability may be a good negotiating tactic but it is not a strategy for the world leader[1].  Likewise, loading the US with debt – because if the economy rebounds it is easy to pay it off, and if it fails you just restructure – can’t be the best way to sell  hundreds of billions of US treasuries every year.

The Trump candidacy will have had some positive effects, such as exposing the dysfunctionality of the Republican Party, imbalances within NATO contributions and the not so hard nose negotiating abilities of the Obama administration.  But the negatives of a Trump presidency are difficult to fathom and potentially huge.

What about the Democrats?

Hillary Clinton is unloved and polarizing, but is the safe pair of hands among the last three remaining candidates.  Yet she has been pulled further to the left by Bernie Sanders than she wanted or expected (and her miseries are not over yet).  That Senator Elizabeth Warren is talked as a possible running mate makes that very clear.

She also has hanging over her head, as the Sword of Damocles, the inquiry into her use of a private server and the sharing of “classified” emails.  It is possible but unlikely that the Department of Justice pursue a criminal indictment against her; but if this decision were a close call, some disgruntled FBI or DOJ staff could leak embarrassing related documents; then, we would have a new ball game.

To succeed in the general elections, she would need to retain the support of Sanders’ voters while attracting independents and non-Trump Republicans: no small task.   

If she succeeds, and unlike the other two candidates, she is more likely to seek consensus because she won’t have a solid base of believers.  She would need a good communicator to help get her message through that, as Talleyrand once said, governing is the art of the possible. Would this be her Vice President, her Secretary of the Treasury or her Secretary of Labor?  I don’t know.  Would she succeed?  Way too soon to tell.  Besides, if she didn’t heed Sanders’ entreaties, over time his supporters could set up the Democratic equivalent of the Tea Party.

In summary, and as of today, this presidential election looks like the most frustrating in years.  The two most likely candidates are viewed more negatively than positively.  The two with the greatest fan bases are party outsiders who promise the moon and howl that the political parties whose banner their carry are rigging the primaries against them and their voters.  The cooler headed one enjoys stronger support from party officials than from party members.

Fasten your seat belt but don’t get off the plane!  

Because if you think this political season can't hold any more surprises, THINK AGAIN.




[1]   But it has been for North Korea.