The Republican primaries are effectively
over. Donald Trump has won. The Democratic ones continue, with Bernie
Sanders hammering at the only Establishment figure left, Hillary Clinton.
2008 was the year Americans felt they
had come together behind an historic candidate, Barak Obama. Eight years later, they are angry, frustrated
and more divided than ever since the Vietnam War. So much so that they are betting on two
outsiders who promise to bring the “corrupt” system down.
Now what? Reality is starting to dawn on Republican
Party grandees that Donald Trump is not their candidate, rather that they are his
supporting cast. Who is the boss? The question is being asked now and will be
answered soon.
Republican mediators hope that Donald
Trump will change his tone to unite the Party.
This is unlikely for several reasons.
Dumping a winning strategy has risks for Trump. Besides, one of the most surprising sights of
the primaries was to see prominent politicians taking little offense at being called
corrupt, liars, weaklings or told to shut up on live tv.
My view is that Donald Trump calculates
that the Republican Party leaders lack courage and vision and that they will
ultimately back him up in order to save their sinecures: better being tame
courtiers than proud exiles.
A Trump president would likely go
over the heads of Congress and the Senate to appeal directly to voters, make
extensive use of executive decrees, and go for big targets: big infrastructure
programs, NATO shake-up, big budget and spending battles. He obviously believes that he would win most
of these; he would enjoy the negotiating game; but the US is not the NY real estate market,
or even France, Germany or Russia:
Gamesmanship at the US level has far greater potential destabilizing effects. Unpredictability may be a good negotiating
tactic but it is not a strategy for the world leader[1]. Likewise, loading the US with debt – because if
the economy rebounds it is easy to pay it off, and if it fails you just
restructure – can’t be the best way to sell hundreds of billions of US treasuries every year.
The Trump candidacy will have had
some positive effects, such as exposing the dysfunctionality of the Republican
Party, imbalances within NATO contributions and the not so hard nose
negotiating abilities of the Obama administration. But the negatives of a Trump presidency are difficult
to fathom and potentially huge.
What about the Democrats?
Hillary Clinton is unloved and
polarizing, but is the safe pair of hands among the last three remaining candidates. Yet she has been pulled further to the left by
Bernie Sanders than she wanted or expected (and her miseries are not over yet). That Senator Elizabeth Warren is talked as a
possible running mate makes that very clear.
She also has hanging over her head,
as the Sword of Damocles, the inquiry into her use of a private server and the
sharing of “classified” emails. It is
possible but unlikely that the Department of Justice pursue a criminal
indictment against her; but if this decision were a close call, some disgruntled
FBI or DOJ staff could leak embarrassing related documents; then, we would have
a new ball game.
To succeed in the general elections,
she would need to retain the support of Sanders’ voters while attracting
independents and non-Trump Republicans: no small task.
If she succeeds, and unlike the other two candidates, she is more likely
to seek consensus because she won’t have a solid base of believers.
She would need a good communicator to help get her message through that,
as Talleyrand once said, governing is the art of the possible. Would this be
her Vice President, her Secretary of the Treasury or her Secretary of
Labor? I don’t know. Would she succeed? Way too soon to tell. Besides, if she didn’t heed Sanders’
entreaties, over time his supporters could set up the Democratic equivalent of
the Tea Party.
In summary, and as of today, this presidential election looks like the most frustrating in years. The two most likely candidates are viewed more
negatively than positively. The two with
the greatest fan bases are party outsiders who promise the moon and howl that
the political parties whose banner their carry are rigging the primaries against them and their
voters. The cooler headed one enjoys
stronger support from party officials than from party members.
Fasten your seat belt but don’t get
off the plane!
Because if you think this political season can't hold any more surprises, THINK AGAIN.
Because if you think this political season can't hold any more surprises, THINK AGAIN.
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