Saturday, June 11, 2016

The Prisoner of (Mar al) Zenda, an exercise in fiction

On a balmy Florida morning, the mansion staff were tidying up the veranda and cleaning after the guests had finished their breakfast.  The dinner and recital of the previous evening had gone rather well considering the palpable tension which had pervaded the relations between the host and some of his most prominent guests.

But the atmosphere had relaxed considerably come morning, and the Majority Leader, who had maintained his habitual reserve since he had arrived, was almost bubbly by the time he had finished his croissants.  The Speaker had returned from an early two hour run and was engaged in a lively discussion with a Silicon Valley investor.

As limousines started to pull up and attendants were loading the luggage, the Host was amiably chatting with departing guests before sending them on their way.  In all the buzz, one could easily be forgiven for failing to notice that the famous hair of their host had turned a shade redder, or that a small blue van was silently rolling towards the service exit.

The bombshell exploded a week later when the Host told Wolf Blitzer on CNN that he had decided to pick former General and CIA Director David Petraeus as his running mate to set up the first co-presidency in US history.

Wolf’s eyes literally bulged out of their sockets, and for a few seconds, he was at a loss for words.  The Host gently let him gather his wits and proceeded to explain why this was a win-win strategy for the country, the Republicans and him:

-“Wolf, to make America great again, we need to revitalize the economy, rebuild our military and recast our foreign policy which have been TERRIBLE in the last eight years.  I am a very successful businessman, my friend Carl Icahn will pitch me his best ideas, and I will choose a FANTASTIC Treasury Secretary!  But look, as smart as I am, I have no experience in foreign affairs or in defense, and David is the best out there, and so I am so grateful that he accepted to serve our great country as Vice President with primary authority in these two areas as well as domestic security.”

-“Donald,---woah,…ah…this is so unexpected,.euh…

-“Wolf, you are a VERY sharp journalist, one of the very best in the business, as a matter of fact I think you may be the best, and surely you can see that this ticket is bringing the temperament and competence which I promised all along and which this great country deserves.  And we will win in November!”

Within seconds, somewhere in Kentucky, the Majority Leader clasped his hands, and, in a manner reminiscent of Dinah Lord’s at the end of The Philadelphia Story, simply uttered: “I did it!”  Somewhere in Chappaqua, NY, a blond woman sunk into her sofa, sobbing: “Not again!”  Five thousand miles away, in a small Amazonian forest clearing, a thin plume of smoke was twisting in the morning mist as a few women were grilling freshly caught fish from the Apaporis river.  The rest of the small Xurungawah tribe was sitting in rapt silence as a big fair skin man with a strange yellow-white mane was haranguing them:

-“Folks, this is one incredible place and you are an amazing people!  We will build here the most amazing ecological resort in the world!  I see you don’t quite grasp what I am telling you, but we will get it done folks, and by the way,..”

Unlike in the movie, we don’t know if Donald Trump has a perfect double.  But an opinion is starting to take hold: at his age, he is unlikely to change, and for a growing number of Americans (including me) he is unelectable to the presidency.

Republican Party leaders are realizing that, but they can’t ignore the votes of millions and nominate another candidate.  They can’t go to war with him although they can’t embrace his corrosive statements.  They openly worry that he doesn’t know enough about domestic or foreign policy to govern effectively.  Yet they are unwilling to leave the White House in the Democrats' hands without a fight.

Still, they hold two aces: one is money.  Effectively, they will control the bulk of the donor contributions and therefore how the campaign will be waged.  They also know that as a man with a large ego, Donald Trump will not want to face a humiliating defeat.

They could try and convince him to resign.  But while his poll ratings have weakened, they haven’t entered panic territory.  Until then, neither he nor his supporters will let go.

Or the party leadership could convince him to share a co-presidency with a respected professional heavyweight; somebody strong enough to make that project credible.  In 1976, Gerald Ford briefly offered a similar deal to Ronald Reagan.  It didn’t work because the two men were not complementary and believed that they could win on their own[1].

This is not 1976.  A co-presidency of the kind suggested above would have several key benefits for the Republicans: 1) it would wrong-foot a Democratic strategy focused so far on discrediting a personality, Trump, 2) it would prevent many Trump voters from bolting or abstaining, 3) it would force the Democrats to come up with a government program agreeable to both Clinton and Sanders factions, and 4) it would also force them  to do the same, giving them credibility.  Win or lose, the benefits for the country are obvious.

In truth, the options for the Republicans are very limited and risky, and they only have themselves to blame.  Our “Prisoner of Zenda option” is a long shot.  But hoping that Hillary Clinton is forced to retire would only bring in Joe Biden, and he would trounce Donald Trump (my opinion).  Allocating most of the money and efforts to the Congressional races at the cost of the presidential one is risky: it could divide the Party further and encourage Republican voters to stay home.

If only Ruritania were real!




[1]  Ronald Reagan believed he could win in 1980.

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