Update on the quest for the Graal

As we get closer to the second round of the presidential elections, the deep divisions within the population and the political parties are getting starker. 

-         -  55% of the population voted neither for Macron nor for Le Pen; what will they do on May 10[1]? 

-         -  Traditional parties and their candidates gathered just 27% of the votes; how will they rebuild, starting with these elections?

-         -  84% of the French were unhappy with the Hollande government and presumably wanted change, but for many Le Pen offers too much and Macron not enough.

The above 55% have a choice: pick another candidate or abstain.  It is always difficult for a losing candidate to recommend that his supporters vote for somebody else, unless of course this helps him advance (or save) his career.

So far, this reluctance combined with voters’ ambivalence about the remaining candidates has led to a rise in abstention expectations for the second round.

Melanchon refuses to endorse either Macron or Le Pen while Dupont Aignan is rallying Le Pen.  The most recent polls indicate that 28% of Fillon’s, 45% of Melanchon’s, and 29% of the Hamon’s voters intend to abstain.

At present, Macron is currently holding to a greater percentage of left-wing voters (40% of Melanchon’s) than Le Pen is to Fillon’s (29%).  Combined with the above abstention levels, this makes Macron difficult to beat. 

If we assume that those who voted for the outliers (Poutou, Asselineau, Arthaud[2]) will vote for Le Pen, then the second round should yield a 59%-41% victory for Macron[3].

This clear margin of victory is not rock solid, for several reasons:

-         - Besides his 24%, Macron needs votes from Les Républicains (which probably views him as too soft and linked to the cabale which plotted the fatal attack on its champion, Fillon), from the revolutionary Left (which has even less in common with him) and from the socialists (who have nowhere else to go if they want to salvage a future, but who probably feel betrayed).  In other words, Macron needs the votes of people who don’t share much with him except a dislike of Le Pen. 

-         -  He is not a seasoned campaigner, he doesn’t work a crowd like Marine Le Pen and yes, he is very young and it shows at times. 

-         -  The May 3 debate with Le Pen will be a high stake one.  If he loses 4% of the Fillon votes to her, and if she convinces half of the Melanchon voters tempted by abstention to vote for her, she wins by the narrowest of margin.   

-        -   Even if he were to squeeze by, he needs a clear victory to herd the parliamentary cats into a working coalition.

    The election is Macron to lose, he shouldn’t, but he could.

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[1]  Date of the second round of the presidential elections.

[2]  Representing respectively the New Anticapitalist Party, the Republican Union and Workers’ Struggle).

[3]  We also use the same polls'estimates of how Macron and Le Pen will win over supporters of the candidates who lost in the first round.

The Leap of Faith

In the movie Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, the hero must cross an abyss, but the only way across is a stone bridge which will materialize after he takes a step forward on faith alone.

With the first round victory of Emmanuel Macron yesterday, global financial markets seem to have taken such a step.  To a lesser extent, so have French voters.

However, let us consider a few sobering facts:

1)- Four candidates scored within a few  points of each other [24% - 21.3% -20% - 19.6%], highlighting how divided the country’s political system really is;

2)- Populist/Demagogic candidates gathered 41% of the votes.  The score rises to 47% if we include leftwing socialists; this is hardly the basis for liberal reforms;

3)- Most Macron voters would be hard-pressed to summarize the key themes of his platform.  Rather, they rejected the other options as too extreme (Le Pen, Melanchon) or discredited (Hamon as the standard bearer of the Socialist Party, Fillon with his wife’s controversial parliamentary job).

Fillon and Hamon have already announced that they will vote for Macron in the second round and encouraged their followers to do so.  Presumably, most of the supporters of Dupont-Aignan (a gaullist-type candidate who got 4.7% and finished 6^th) will do likewise. That would give Macron 55%.  Le Pen’s voters are likely to stick with her.  Melanchon’s will either abstain or vote Le Pen.  Another 4% of votes earned by minor candidates will either join the top two contenders in roughly equal proportions or stay home.

While Macron should win, abstentions will play a key role: they could make the race very tight if Les Republicains (LR, Fillon’s party) voters stay home or a blow out if Melanchon’s abstain.  A back of the envelop estimate gives Macron a likely 57/43 victory, but the score could vary from 51/49[1] to 63/47[2] depending on abstentions.

Then what?

The new president will need a majority in Parliament to work with.  Macron has launched his own party, En Marche, which will field its own candidates at the June legislative elections. 

How many seats can it win?  Will it absorb former socialist deputies?  Probably as the socialists are in disarray and lack an obvious leader.  It will be harder with centrists as François Bayrou, president of the MoDem[3] and the earliest major supporter of Macron, will want to protect his power base.  Some LR bigwigs rallied Macron before the first round, and the party needs to find a new leader (always an excruciating challenge), but I expect it to fight to preserve its own identity.

As always, the Front National of Marine Le Pen will have trouble translating its 20%+ electoral support into seats in Parliament.  This should favor Macron who has momentum as well as Melanchon’s Parti de Gauche (Left Party) for whom it will also be the first solo legislative election. 

Fillon’s program was clear, to some extent radical, and easy to understand.  It also called for sacrifices in order to reform France.  Melanchon’s fascination with socialism Venezuelan-style was toxic, but the man was a great entertainer.  Le Pen’s economics were vague and unrealistic but her message on immigration and security resonated with many voters. 

On the other hand, Macron stuck to a middle course, often meandering to avoid controversy.  He has good ideas on immigration, education, the work place, public spending, energy, etc.  They seem calibrated to make the right "buzz" without providing much push-back.  The question is: is it enough to move France forward?  Is it clear enough to mobilize voters and form a governing majority in parliament?

With 47% of the voters opposed to the kind of economic reforms that are necessary for France to recover (49% if outliers are included), the next president’s task will be very tough.  Macron is best positioned to have a go at it, politically speaking.

Given his meteoric rise and political success, Emmanuel Macron should not be underestimated.  So far, he has read the politicians and the voters better than anybody else.  From a US perspective, he is also the best candidate.  All in all, a small leap of faith is probably warranted.

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[1]  If 50% of Les Républicains and of the Dupont-Aignan voters stay home while everybody else shows up as in the first round.

[2]  If 50% of Melanchon’s voters stay home but everybody else shows up to vote.

[3]  The Movement Démocratique, the largest centrist party.