In the movie Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, the
hero must cross an abyss, but the only way across is a stone bridge which will materialize after he takes a step forward on faith alone.
With the first round victory
of Emmanuel Macron yesterday, global financial markets seem to have taken such
a step. To a lesser extent, so have French
voters.
However, let us consider a few sobering
facts:
1)- Four candidates scored
within a few points of each other [24% -
21.3% -20% - 19.6%], highlighting how divided the country’s political system
really is;
2)- Populist/Demagogic
candidates gathered 41% of the votes. The score rises to 47% if we include leftwing
socialists; this is hardly the basis for liberal reforms;
3)- Most Macron voters would
be hard-pressed to summarize the key themes of his platform. Rather, they rejected the other options as
too extreme (Le Pen, Melanchon) or discredited (Hamon as the standard bearer of
the Socialist Party, Fillon with his wife’s controversial parliamentary job).
Fillon and Hamon have already
announced that they will vote for Macron in the second round and encouraged
their followers to do so. Presumably, most
of the supporters of Dupont-Aignan (a gaullist-type candidate who got 4.7% and
finished 6th) will do likewise. That would give Macron 55%. Le Pen’s voters are likely to stick with her. Melanchon’s will either abstain or
vote Le Pen. Another 4% of votes earned
by minor candidates will either join the top two contenders in roughly equal proportions
or stay home.
While Macron should win, abstentions
will play a key role: they could make the race very tight if Les Republicains (LR, Fillon’s party)
voters stay home or a blow out if Melanchon’s abstain. A back of the envelop estimate gives Macron a
likely 57/43 victory, but the score could vary from 51/49[1] to
63/47[2]
depending on abstentions.
Then what?
The new president will need a
majority in Parliament to work with.
Macron has launched his own party, En
Marche, which will field its own candidates at the June legislative
elections.
How many seats can it win? Will it absorb former socialist
deputies? Probably as the socialists are
in disarray and lack an obvious leader. It
will be harder with centrists as François Bayrou, president of the MoDem[3] and the earliest major
supporter of Macron, will want to protect his power base. Some LR bigwigs rallied Macron before the first round, and the party needs to
find a new leader (always an excruciating challenge), but I expect it to fight
to preserve its own identity.
As always, the Front National of Marine Le Pen will
have trouble translating its 20%+ electoral support into seats in
Parliament. This should favor Macron who
has momentum as well as Melanchon’s Parti
de Gauche (Left Party) for whom
it will also be the first solo legislative election.
Fillon’s program was clear, to
some extent radical, and easy to understand.
It also called for sacrifices in order to reform France. Melanchon’s fascination with socialism Venezuelan-style
was toxic, but the man was a great entertainer.
Le Pen’s economics were vague and unrealistic but her message on
immigration and security resonated with many voters.
On the other hand, Macron
stuck to a middle course, often meandering to avoid controversy. He has good
ideas on immigration, education, the work place, public spending, energy,
etc. They seem calibrated to make the right "buzz" without providing much push-back. The question is: is it enough to
move France forward? Is it clear enough to
mobilize voters and form a governing majority in parliament?
With 47% of the voters
opposed to the kind of economic reforms that are necessary for France to
recover (49% if outliers are included), the next president’s task will be very tough. Macron is best positioned to have a go at it,
politically speaking.
Given his meteoric rise and
political success, Emmanuel Macron should not be underestimated. So far, he has read the politicians and the
voters better than anybody else. From a
US perspective, he is also the best candidate.
All in all, a small leap of faith is probably warranted.
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