Hannibal meets the hobbits

In 216 BC, the Carthaginian General Hannibal won a crushing victory over the Roman armies at Cannae.  For reasons that remain unclear, Hannibal hesitated and decided not to march towards Rome, prompting Maharbal, his famed cavalry chief, to tell him that he knew how to win, but not how to capitalize on victory.

In 1863, President Lincoln removed General Ambrose Burnside from command after his loss at the battle of Fredricksburg, and characterized his action as having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Coming into being in 2009, the Tea Party crystallized popular rejection of Washington insiders, of politics as usual and of reckless taxing and spending.  Although it represents a minority of American voters and Congressmen, the Tea Party has gained strong political influence as it can call on 80 or so votes, thereby denying the Republican party of its majority in the Lower Chamber.

The Tea Party could justly take credit for sensitizing Americans to the need to rein in spending, for spurring the Republican Party to present a deficit and debt reduction plan and for trying to block Democrats from ever expanding the reach of government.  However, their insistence that there be no increase in the debt limit or that any legislation include provisions that the Democrats or the President couldn’t accept risks snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

I believe that the Republicans could have successfully pushed for a package that would have been heavily geared towards spending cuts; such a package would have been credible and therefore more difficult for Democrats to reject outright.   Instead, Washington continues to show a sorry spectacle and sows doubt in our ability to govern ourselves. 

It is the very nature of democracy that victories are the result of negotiations, with one side rarely achieving 80% of his goals.  As Senator McCain observed, only in Middle Earth can the hobbits totally vanquish Mordor.  And as strange as Washington appears at times, it is not Middle Earth yet.

So the spectacle goes on.  We may yet stumble further as we did with the first vote on TARP.  Luckily (?) for the US, the eurozone is not looking too good, and there are not enough yens or Swiss francs to go around.

Looking further down the road, this debacle will have legs and will impact the presidential election of 2012.  Candidates viewed as close to the Tea Party ethos, such as Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann or even Tim Pawlenty could suffer if voters decide that their planks are unrealistically rigid.  Mssrs Huntsman and Romney have studiously stayed away from the debt limit debate.  That was probably wise, but once the storm passes, they will need to show that, if elected, they would handle the budget and debt debate better than the President did.  Voters may yet decide that they want the next president to combine strong convictions with a successful track record as a reformer and governor.  This might open the way to Governor Perry from Texas.  Finally, the current crisis reinforces the image of a Congress far more polarized than the general population.  Either one of the traditional parties will move to the center or a new Independent Party is bound to arise.