This is an update to the May
4th post. I see no reason to
change the reservations which I expressed then about the future of the region.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, President
Maduro was reelected with no opposition to speak of. Key political opponents remained in jail or
under house arrest. That this farce
received little effective pushback from Latin American leaders is doubly
worrying: 1) it shows continuing ambivalence as to how to react to attacks on democracy,
and 2) it provides evidence that current leaders are busy with serious troubles
right at home.
Venezuela is disintegrating. Whether accelerating the process would permit
an earlier recovery is the question. At
this stage, only the US could trigger such a collapse by barring imports of
heavy Venezuelan crude. But then
neighbors like Colombia and Brazil would be hit with the brunt of the
fallouts. It looks like all the parties
feel that it is too late to intervene and “own” this crisis and that Venezuela
should be left adrift. Meanwhile, the
people suffer.
Colombia
The first round of the
Colombian presidential elections took place last weekend. The results were generally as expected in the
latest polls and confirmed the population’s disapproval of the outgoing
government.
Abstentions were an
historically low 46%[1]. Center right candidate Ivan Duque led with 39.1%,
followed by the populist progressive, Gustavo Petro, with 25.1%, and the left
of center former mayor of Medellin, Sergio Fajardo, with 23.7%. Tellingly, Humberto de la Calle, the outgoing
government chief negotiator in the peace process with the FARCs came in fifth
with only 2%.
The second round will take
place next month and the outcome is not as predictable as one might think. What is clear is that the two remaining
candidates are running on very different platforms and that the middle has been
hollowed out; there is not much that Petro and Duque have in common except
their passports.
To begin with, while voters
rejected the policies of the outgoing government, corruption was the leading
complaint, not the peace accord with the FARCs.
Indeed, concerns about quality of life – crime – and economic prospects
ranked high. As in other countries,
these concerns often lead voters towards “new faces” rather than established
political figures.
Finally, many in the Fajardo
coalition are closer to the aspirations and concerns of Gustavo Petro albeit
not so much to the candidate himself. This
is the case of Antonio Navarro Wolf, now a senator, and a former #2 of the M-19
to which group Petro also belonged[2];
he has a clean image and is respected. Antanas
Mockus, former dean of the Universidad Nacional, was the most colorful and, in the
view of many[3],
the best mayor of Bogota in recent memory; he is associated with clean and inclusive
government, but he also makes no secret of his support for the peace accord
with the FARCs, unlike Ivan Duque.
Will Fajardo, Navarro Wolf
and Mockus endorse a candidate? Will
their followers abide by the recommendations or will they simply abstain: rejecting
both a right wing candidate and someone who was an ineffective mayor of Bogota
and who is viewed as too close to the Bolivarian movement in Venezuela?
As I have written in previous
posts, Latin America cries for politicians in the mold of Ricardo Lagos: left
of center individuals who are determined to raise the standards of living of
the poor, who will do so within the framework of an open economy and who are
capable of keeping social cohesion.
Brazil
In Brazil, the situation has not
improved although time remains to turn things around.
Pre-candidate Joaquim
Barbosa, a former Chief Justice of the Federal Supreme Court, decided not to
run. I think it is a loss for Brazil. Despite being in jail, former president Lula
remains the most popular figure as per these May polls:
First round voting intentions:
With Lula
|
Without Lula*
|
|
Lula
|
32.4%
|
n/a
|
Bolsonaro
|
16.7%
|
18.3%
|
Marina Silva
|
7.6%
|
11.2%
|
Ciro Gomes
|
5.4%
|
9.0%
|
Geraldo Alckmin
|
4.0%
|
5.3%
|
Fernando Haddad
|
n/a
|
2.3%
|
Mereilles
|
0.3%
|
0.5%
|
Others
|
6.9%
|
7.7%
|
Invalid/Undecided
|
26.7%
|
45.7%
|
Source: CNT/MDA
(*) In this scenario, the PT would
nominated Fernando Haddad to replace Lula.
In his absence, the field is
wide open as close to half of voters haven’t decided or keep voting Lula even
though he wouldn’t be on the ballots.
What is clear is that voters are in their majority leaning left but
haven’t found a winner there. Absent
Lula, Bolsonaro, a populist from the right, could do well and make it to the
second and deciding round. What is
concerning is that voters’ view of politicians is very negative, main streamers
and outliers alike (except for J. Barbosa at 12%).
As in Colombia, voters are
most concerned about their economic prospects and well-being. More so than the Colombians, Brazilians
expect a lot from their government, often in ways that are incompatible with
their ultimate goals: the country is
simply not rich enough to make the massive wealth transfers which they aspire
to. Massive government intervention in
the economy has led to massive corruption, inefficiencies and slow growth perpetuating
a vicious circle.
Brazil is a huge country and
national elections consume vast sums of money (which is partly the reason why
Lula’s party tried to divert millions from Petrobras ‘coffers to its own). Money and organization, in the end, will talk
although surprises are possible. An
interesting talk it will be pitting the best organized political party, the
PT, without its star candidate (Lula), an Internet-savvy populist from the
right (Bolsonaro) and the centrist from the wealthiest state in the country
(Alckmin), among others. Deprived of
Lula, the PT is already flexing its muscles through the actions of unions affiliated
to it, Petrobras being a prime example.
Historically and culturally,
Brazil has not been a country of extremes, and there is no reason to believe
this has changed. But it is going
through rough seas without a trusted pilot.
[1] Although high by regional standards.
[2] Reportedly, Navarro broke with Petro when the
latter was mayor of Bogota citing his autocratic style.
[3] Including me.
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