Muchos años después, frente al pelotón de
fusilamiento, el coronel Aureliano Buendia había de recordar aquella tarde
remota en que su padre lo llevo a conocer el hielo. Macondo era entonces una aldea de 20 casas de
barro y cañabrava construidas a la orilla de un rio de aguas diáfanas que se
precipitaban por un lecho de piedras pulidas, blancas y enormes como huevos prehistóricos. El mundo era tan reciente,
que muchas cosas carecían de nombre, y para mencionarlas había que señalarlas
con el dedo[1].
Few novels have had as powerful and magical
beginnings, and when GGM’s book, once translated, reached Europe and the US in
the late 1960s, it instantly put Colombia on the literary map. Subsequent García Marquez novels were
anxiously expected and read, and by and large, didn’t disappoint although never
quite matching their trailblazer. Soon,
the world rediscovered older Latin writers such as Neruda and Borges, and
welcomed the likes of Vargas Llosa, Cortazar, Fuentes and others.
Since then, through periodic ups and downs, Latin
America has more often than not faded from the headlines. I believe that in 2014 it will make a return. Paraphrasing García Marquez again, time is
not passing, it is turning in a circle.
There have been many attempts to draw parallels, to
put Latin countries in neat boxes, in short, to simplify the Latin
reality. Like all generalizations, these
efforts contained some elements of truth that had little overall predictive
value. Indeed, while there have been two
principal colonizing influences, Spanish and Portuguese, there also have been
important[2]
immigration flows from Italy, Germany, France and the Middle East. At present, there appears to be a political and
economic cleavage between Atlantic (Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina) and Pacific
(Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico) countries but this distinction wouldn’t have
existed thirty years ago. Finally, there
is a tendency to bundle Latin American countries together as commodity
producers; many do export commodities but their customers are somewhat
different and so is the mix between hard and soft commodities. In the end, because of topography, demography
and history, one should consider each country separately. Evidently, being in the same neighborhood,
there has been and always will be interaction among them.
2014 should bring to the fore a number of important
challenges and issues which will probably result in heightened volatility and
tensions in this region, and ultimately, major changes. Let us consider these Latin countries on a case by
case basis.
Colombia
No single factor explains the resurgence of the
Colombian economy better than the drastic improvement in the security climate in
the country, and in particular the beating back of the FARC and drug traffickers
since 2003. Pipeline attacks is a good
index of security levels as it affects the most dynamic sector of the economy.
President Santos has staked his legacy on reaching a
peace accord with the FARC. By all
accounts, he is thoughtful and deliberate, and he is correct in emphasizing the
huge benefits that peace would bring.
The question is how do we get there? Was the relaxation of the pressure on the insurgents necessary?
Will waning support from Venezuela pressure the FARC to settle? Will FARC leaders, lately seen relaxing on the
beach in Cuba, lose their fighting ardor and want to retire? Will the Colombian population accept terms
that would allow reinsertion of the FARC in society and politics? More crucially, will a successful political
negotiation with the FARC bring an end to the involvement of its members in drug
trafficking and violence?
On a macroeconomic level, the Colombian economy is
both healthy and dynamic; it enjoys a large domestic market and relative
proximity to North America. A
key challenge is developing an efficient infrastructure which is all the more
necessary by an unforgiving topography; after some significant delays, it
appears that the legal and regulatory framework for large scale project
development is now ready.
Right now, President Santos looks likely to win
reelection next May; this would be good to convince the FARC if they
want to make a deal. But the November 2013
deadline for a deal has already passed, and it is unlikely that the negotiations
can be extended much longer unless the security climate is improved. 2014 should therefore force the parties to
make some tough decisions: the President
either breaks the negotiations or he applies greater military pressure on the
FARC to force a settlement; the FARC either settle soon or face the risk of harsh
military retributions with no domestic or international support.
My guess is that, as elections approach and time for
negotiations runs out, violence rises but the security climate improves, and we
have already seen what this means for the economy.
[1] Many years later, as he faced the firing squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendia was to remember that distant afternoon when his father took him to discover ice. At that time Macondo was a village of 20 adobe houses, built on the bank of a river of clear water that ran along a bed of polishes stones, which were white and enormous, like prehistoric eggs. The world was so recent that many things lacked names, and in order to indicate them in was necessary to point. (Unfortunately, this translation fails to convey the poetry and rhythm of the original text)
[2] Not in
absolute numbers but in terms of their importance for the host countries.
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