The Yellow Brick Road

It is too soon yet to guess who will be the next president, but not too soon to detect a change in the dynamics of the country.  And that is good news.  Perhaps unexpectedly, the American voters seem to take a greater interest in the substance of the debate and to realize that any solution will have to be negotiated in the political middle.

I think that it all began with the first presidential debate.  The Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, surprised almost everybody: he won, did so on substance and was much more moderate than the press had painted him to be (in fairness, he moved back to the center after having won the nomination on the right).  By contrast, the President demonstrated that eloquence needed a base in facts, in experience and in a successful track record to be effective, at least if you are the incumbent.  Though it had lapped screaming TV talk shows and the vacuity of The Wives of … reality programs for some years now, the public gave Romney a decisive victory in post debate polls because he had presented sounder arguments.

To my mind, the vice-presidential debate reinforced this trend towards problem-solving.  Vice-president Joe Biden was very aggressive as expected but was also very rude and at times contemptuous of his opponent.  His arguments often lacked substance and his tone was generally populist in the extreme.  By contrast, Paul Ryan was composed and displayed greater command of facts and numbers; he was also surprisingly at ease debating foreign policy.

Democratic pundits were delighted: Joe Biden has come out with all guns blazing.  Yet I think that this strategy was flawed.  For one, he made his boss, President Obama, look weaker.  For another, his demeanor seemed to have turned off the Independents and undecided voters who were less interested in televised combat and wanted to hear solutions to their and the nation’s problems.  Paul Ryan may have taken a lot of verbal abuse but he seemed to have won on points so to speak.

The next presidential debate will be interesting and likely will determine the outcome of the elections.  By temperament, President Obama is more collected than his vice president; he also will be faced by Mitt Romney, some 20 years his senior and a person with a strong track record in private and public life.  As is clear to most already, winning over the American Middle is the key to winning the presidency and there is ample evidence that the winner will need to win on substance: that is what people want, besides, while Obama is generally viewed as likable, Romney is no longer viewed as a cold hearted money-maker.

Whoever becomes president in November, it looks to me that the American people are realizing that the solution to the country’s problems will cause pain to everybody rather than a few thousand plutocrats: effective tax rates will have to rise (sorry Republicans) and public spending will have to be cut (sorry Democrats).  Failed experiments in Japan and Western Europe have brought this country back to reality and none too soon.  Welcome back to the Center!