Thursday, September 26, 2013

Where have you been, Charlie Brown?


Charlie Brown turned 65 last year.  How time flies!  Last we saw him, he was still trying to kick that football, and Lucy was still up to her usual tricks.  Where has he been all these years?

Charlie: You would never guess, I went to college and stayed there; actually… I always knew I could make it, I just had to wait until my grades would improve as I knew they would… eventually.  I really wanted to get away from Lucy; actually, I worried too much about that, but it turned out alright.

Me: How so?

Charlie:  Lucy decided she was going to West Point, and there is no way they would have taken me there even if I had applied.

Me: How did she do?

Charlie: Well, she retired last year, as a two star general; she was the guest of honor at the Army-Navy game; that was nice of them, although I understand they had a hard time getting her off the field; they had given her the game ball and ...

Me: So what did you do after college?

Charlie:  Well I taught economics at Columbia for thirty years.  I wrote a few research papers with Linus (he was at Berkeley); he did the math part and I did the editing.  And then I went to the Fed in Washington.

Me: Really? So what do you make of it all, I mean, the taper?

Charlie: Gosh, I don’t know, I am in research, not policy-making.  In any case, and as you know, the chairman never promised to end the taper in September...

Me: But if the CEO of Goldman Sachs says on the morning of the FOMC decision that he expects a September taper, and thus gets it wrong, can the rest of us be expected to better read the Fed’s intentions?  Well maybe the Fed changed its mind at the last minute?

Charlie:  Can you ask me about Brazil, or Russia, or even Argentina?

Me:  OK, so where do we stand now?  I heard one FOMC member saying they might taper in October, and another saying that unemployment was too high and Washington pols too reckless to even think about it, and still another saying that the Fed’s perceived U turn had damaged the credibility of the institution… Charlie?  

Charlie:  Sorry, got to go, Patty and I got the grandkids for the weekend!